The Courage of the Right Convictions

One downside of writing a lot is that sometimes you miss the mark.  I think that happened here: Let’s Find Out.  Not that I was wrong per se, but I failed to capture the idea I was trying to get across.  What I should have written about instead was the relationship between courage, conviction, and success.

I learned from gambling in Las Vegas that the smartest gamblers frequently are not the richest. Most of them have comfortable middle class assets, but very few are millionaires.  Now, you might ask how I know these were the smartest guys at the card table.  But it was easy to tell: they were convinced of incredibly smart things and happy to tell you about it. Continue reading

It’s all about the computers, and if you’re clueless here’s a chance to fix that…

I’m not sure how I missed the online education revolution, but apparently it’s happening, for free, while I’m busy drinking beer.  I hate it when that happens…

I think it’s pretty obvious that finance, going forward, is going to be about quantitative skills and computers.  Really that’s been partially true for 15 years at least, and it’s certainly not getting any less true.  Consider: Continue reading

Can We All Stop With The Buffett Bullshit?

The internet is in love with Warren Buffett, and for good reason.  He’s been a very successful businessman, and his firms (first Buffett Partners (BPL), then Berkshire Hathaway(BRK)) have handily beaten the market for over 50 years.  That’s a solid resume, and there’s plenty to learn about how he did it.

What’s unfortunate about this internet man crush is that the object of affection is a fake person.  The Buffett the internet loves bears only a passing resemblance to the real story.  This is too bad, because the real story is far more interesting than the myth.  This is especially true if you’re a speculator as opposed to an investor, because the Buffett fortune is actually built on a bedrock of speculation.

Here are a few aspects of the real story that usually get left out: Continue reading

A Speculative Alternative To Investing Part 5: Dividend Stocks, Program Trading, and Picking our Spreads

(part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4)

Last time we determined that beta neutral spreads are the perfect instrument to use in our speculative portfolio.  Now we need to decide which spreads.  Sadly, that’s as open ended a question as “Which stock should I buy?”.  What I’m going to share with you here is a technique I’ve developed that seems to give good returns on relatively low risk. Continue reading